Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 185.864216 227.444238 279.716667 351.664418 450.442050 5.849645e+02 7.888877e+02
2025-02-09 141.446254 189.574343 258.420078 368.914472 552.157357 8.663710e+02 1.508357e+03
2025-02-16 116.600264 165.991952 243.171180 381.709370 648.257981 1.206355e+03 2.740958e+03
2025-02-23 99.849757 148.638037 230.151007 390.065655 738.859310 1.616440e+03 4.919934e+03
2025-03-02 85.468976 131.330652 211.751241 380.386105 786.399634 1.980513e+03 8.091813e+03
2025-03-09 74.601305 117.602370 196.048950 370.021998 826.789788 2.381851e+03 1.347910e+04
2025-03-16 65.596884 105.494222 180.587250 354.834944 846.733234 2.754331e+03 2.195664e+04
2025-03-23 63.163764 104.768124 186.998495 392.225373 1046.633333 4.263810e+03 7.645153e+04
2025-03-30 58.405069 98.856173 181.445718 398.081670 1151.764621 5.615867e+03 2.523527e+05
2025-04-06 55.134297 95.313590 180.208254 415.189639 1316.972693 8.038720e+03 2.509492e+06
2025-04-13 50.707671 88.839993 171.190260 407.246652 1375.188413 9.921990e+03 1.310161e+08
2025-04-20 49.638010 89.075651 177.687172 448.719195 1712.080664 1.783465e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 47.994193 88.051742 181.451231 485.528178 2100.626368 3.432419e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 46.059220 86.141014 182.688824 515.242573 2516.285589 6.991330e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 43.918545 83.473093 181.417686 535.712880 2925.550584 1.501819e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 41.733577 80.418091 178.508779 548.915679 3324.669955 3.560245e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.901739 75.530999 169.640146 533.713414 3434.860916 6.358599e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.340419 71.026201 161.176549 517.493876 3519.991826 1.206256e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 33.835154 66.417624 151.747808 493.852011 3487.887992 1.993748e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 33.684671 67.464922 159.125183 552.329504 4709.539840 3.017689e+10 NaN
2025-06-22 32.309924 65.350621 156.586515 561.570253 5301.562381 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 31.409738 64.328408 157.285851 588.688819 6394.025423 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.789531 61.322640 151.191359 576.075279 6652.037797 NaN NaN